Cognitive Biases to Avoid
Decision-Making Biases
Confirmation Bias
Definition: The tendency to search for, interpret, and recall information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs. Example: Only reading news sources that align with your political views. Mitigation: Actively seek out contradictory evidence and opposing viewpoints.
Anchoring Bias
Definition: Over-reliance on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”). Example: Initial price offerings in negotiations disproportionately influence final outcomes. Mitigation: Consider problems from multiple starting points; delay forming initial judgments.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Definition: Continuing an endeavor due to previously invested resources, despite new evidence suggesting it should be abandoned. Example: Continuing a failing project because “we’ve already spent so much on it.” Mitigation: Evaluate decisions based on future costs and benefits, not past investments.
Availability Heuristic
Definition: Overestimating the likelihood of events that come readily to mind. Example: Overestimating the risk of shark attacks due to news coverage while underestimating common risks like driving. Mitigation: Look up actual statistics rather than relying on what examples come to mind.
Recency Bias
Definition: Giving greater importance to more recent information. Example: Evaluating an employee based primarily on their most recent performance. Mitigation: Maintain records over time and review the complete history.
Bandwagon Effect
Definition: Adopting beliefs or behaviors because many others do so. Example: Investing in a stock because it’s popular, without researching its fundamentals. Mitigation: Make decisions based on independent analysis rather than popularity.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Definition: Unskilled individuals overestimate their abilities, while experts underestimate theirs. Example: A novice programmer believing they can build a complex system in a fraction of the time an expert estimates. Mitigation: Seek feedback from others and be open to evidence of your limitations.
Problem Analysis Biases
Framing Effect
Definition: Drawing different conclusions from the same information when presented differently. Example: People are more likely to choose surgery if told it has a 90% survival rate versus a 10% mortality rate. Mitigation: Reframe problems in multiple ways before making decisions.
Fundamental Attribution Error
Definition: Attributing others’ behavior to their character rather than situational factors. Example: Assuming a colleague missed a deadline because they’re lazy, rather than considering their workload. Mitigation: Consider situational and environmental factors that might influence behavior.
Hindsight Bias
Definition: The tendency to perceive past events as having been predictable. Example: Claiming “I knew it all along” after an event occurs. Mitigation: Keep records of predictions and review them honestly; acknowledge uncertainty.
Curse of Knowledge
Definition: Difficulty understanding what it’s like not to know something you know. Example: An expert unable to explain a concept in simple terms to a beginner. Mitigation: Test explanations with people unfamiliar with the subject; use analogies.
Planning Fallacy
Definition: Underestimating the time, costs, and risks of future actions. Example: Consistently setting project deadlines that cannot be met. Mitigation: Use historical data from similar projects; add buffer time; consider worst-case scenarios.
Status Quo Bias
Definition: Preference for the current state of affairs and resistance to change. Example: Sticking with current suppliers despite better alternatives being available. Mitigation: Regularly review current practices as if you were starting from scratch.
Survivorship Bias
Definition: Focusing on successful examples while ignoring failures. Example: Studying only successful startups and missing the common factors in failures. Mitigation: Deliberately study failures and not just successes.
Group Decision Biases
Groupthink
Definition: The tendency for groups to make irrational decisions due to pressure for conformity. Example: Team members withholding concerns about a flawed plan to maintain harmony. Mitigation: Assign devil’s advocate roles; encourage dissenting opinions; use anonymous input.
Authority Bias
Definition: Tendency to attribute greater weight to the opinions of authority figures. Example: Accepting a leader’s poor idea without question due to their position. Mitigation: Evaluate ideas based on merit rather than who proposed them; create anonymous idea submission processes.
Social Proof
Definition: Assuming the actions of others reflect correct behavior. Example: Following a crowd’s behavior in an ambiguous situation. Mitigation: Make independent judgments; seek diverse information sources.
In-Group Bias
Definition: Favoring members of one’s own group over outsiders. Example: Preferring ideas from your department regardless of quality. Mitigation: Blind review processes; diverse teams; explicit evaluation criteria.
Shared Information Bias
Definition: Groups tend to discuss information all members already know rather than unique information. Example: Meeting time spent on familiar topics while critical unique knowledge remains unshared. Mitigation: Have members write down information before discussion; structured sharing processes.
Creative Thinking Biases
Functional Fixedness
Definition: Limiting an object’s use to its traditional function. Example: Not considering a stapler as a paperweight when needed. Mitigation: Practice considering alternative uses for familiar objects; use random stimulation techniques.
False Consensus Effect
Definition: Overestimating how much others agree with you. Example: Assuming your solution preference is widely shared without verification. Mitigation: Gather diverse perspectives; test assumptions about others’ preferences.
Premature Optimization
Definition: Perfecting a solution before adequately exploring alternatives. Example: Refining details of the first solution that comes to mind. Mitigation: Force yourself to generate multiple solutions before developing any in detail.
Not Invented Here Syndrome
Definition: Resistance to ideas or products developed elsewhere. Example: Rejecting external solutions in favor of building everything in-house. Mitigation: Establish processes to systematically evaluate external ideas; reward adoption of good external solutions.
Outcome Bias
Definition: Judging a decision based on its outcome rather than the quality of the decision process. Example: Praising a risky decision that happened to work out well. Mitigation: Evaluate decisions based on the information available at the time and the process used.
Mitigation Strategies
General Approaches
- Awareness: Simply knowing about biases reduces their impact
- Diverse Teams: Include people with different perspectives and backgrounds
- Devil’s Advocate: Assign someone to challenge the prevailing view
- Pre-Mortem: Imagine the project has failed and work backward
- Checklists: Use structured processes to ensure comprehensive thinking
- Seek Feedback: Get input from others not emotionally invested in the outcome
- Slow Down: Take time for reflection rather than rushing to judgment
- Data Over Intuition: Rely on evidence rather than gut feeling for important decisions
- Decision Journals: Record the rationale for decisions to review later
- Regular Reviews: Periodically examine processes and outcomes to identify bias patterns